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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated
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To: carranza2 who wrote (150425)12/10/2005 12:47:35 PM
From: Lane3   of 793845
 
>>his conclusions are based on a long-term study that he began twenty years ago. He picked two hundred and eighty-four people who made their living “commenting or offering advice on political and economic trends,” and he started asking them to assess the probability that various things would or would not come to pass, both in the areas of the world in which they specialized and in areas about which they were not expert.<<

You have to commend the guy for his fortitude, if nothing else. <g>

>>“We reach the point of diminishing marginal predictive returns for knowledge disconcertingly quickly,” he reports. <<

Seriously, that was a fascinating piece. And thoughtful. Thanks for offering it.
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