abc--I am in Anaheim, close to SVG's Thermco division which is located in Orange, CA about 15 minutes away. Some excerpts from your comments on Yahoo include:
<<On the R&D front, I can tell you from close personal experience that what investor relations is saying is definitely occuring - this is a good co. - no BS.>>
<<Here's the latest I've uncovered - and why should holdabcde_98
Mar 11 1998
8:55PM EST
if need the cash badly,sell, otherwise hold on since:
1. SVG not going out of business - gov't funded from years
back to give the USA the edge over Asia in technology
and SVG does have the best litho (ie. optics) technology in
the world
2. Litho process involves several passes of the wafer through
machine - each time a layer is added. SVG is consistently at
the .18micron layer size whereas ASMLF is at .22 - .25micron. Yes, it is a signifcant leap to make that layer smaller ie.18. SVG has even pushed lower than .18.
3. ASMLF is a commodity product (.25 or .22u) whereas SVG is the
specialist that can make the layers as thin as .18u or less.
All Intel Pentium II (ie. Intel's most recent) chips have come from SVG. SVG is definitely at the cutting edge.
SVG could pass ASML created wafers through SVG's machines to
add layers on top with those layers thinner.
4. Book to bill ratio the same -- orders are still coming in.
5. Loss of 25% rev. can be viewed simply as expect to deliver
say 15 machines instead of 20 machines, this quarter.
6. Business is cyclical, yes. But note that as each new chip
(eg. any extra things Intel decides to put on its chip)
is designed by Intel, it fuels a round of new machines.
7. The machines purchased have a limited life (say 5 or fewer years), so new machines will be purchased.
8. SVG is THE LEADER, GLOBALLY, in optics. With optics can
allow more light in, etc. with the net result of thinner, more refined layers.
Leaders in their industry will remain in business and with technological expertise on par or better than NASA, SVG will rise again.>>
You also note on Yahoo that you sold your SVGI position a couple of days after placing the above posts. What is your current level of optimism or pessimism regarding the lithography division? Also, what are the relative merits of ASML vs. SVGL? Thanks.
--David |
