Steve -- thanks, although I'm reluctant to admit 'wisdom'...
As Count Greffi said, "That is the great fallacy; the wisdom of old men. They do not grow wise. They grow careful." <g>
On market trends, it's anyone's guess. The view that 'feels' right for me is that INDU retraces to around 8900-9000, then makes a roundturn to lower lows. (I'm not per se an Elliot-waver or Gann chart fanatic.) As you may have guess from the "Bull thread" post, I anticipate the up-move to commence Tuesday; HOWEVER, I won't attempt to time things so precisely (at least, not in a significant way). It's too early to proclaim a bear market, so I'm simply building reserves for cheaper prices toward year-end. At that time, we should have a better understanding for magnitude, duration.
I wonder if the service you've referenced predominantly deploys leading or trailing indicators. Given the circumstances, I'd seek statistically reliable trailing indicators for intermediate perspective. In a broad sense, I'm content to sacrifice early opportunity in exchange for whipsaw risk. Like you, my *trading* window has become increasingly narrow, and the pendulum is shifting away from position trading.
Good luck,
Alan |
