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Technology Stocks : Y2K (Year 2000) Stocks: An Investment Discussion
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To: Warren Gates who wrote (1504)10/31/1996 11:43:00 PM
From: Robert Lawkins   of 13949
 
Warren,

In fewer words, you are talking about discouted cash flow analysis, present value analysis, analyzing this company like a fixed income security. I agree...so long as the prospect for future earnings growth is minimal. These stocks have skyrocketed based upon explosive earnings growth prospects but the growth is not sustainable unless they have a plan to continue that growth beyond Y2K work.

Now, in the case of DDIM with Q3 coming in at .05 actual vs. .03 estimated, is this going to make everyone run out an buy the stock? Let's see, that's 150% earnings growth. I used an estimate of 200% starting from 1997 numbers that Philip Lee provided at $1.00 and using Warren's present value analysis discounted at 0% got, I think, $31.

Now Mr. James Johnson please don't be smug. Expectations vs. reality. Expectations were for .03 and they came in with .05. Remember they don't use fractional cents in estimates and it was only one broker (I am assuming from other postings).

If you promise a girl 12 inches and give her 11 she will be disappointed. If you promise her 4 inches and give her 5, she gets more than she expected...but is she really satisfied??? Five cents huh???

Mondoman...I think you can sleep tight tonight.
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