Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed Message Board

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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: Terry Whitman who wrote (150935)	2/12/2002 10:50:05 PM
From: LLCF	Read Replies (1) of 436258

<Debt, unemployment. Coincident & lagging. > No actually, leading us out of the last serious recession [20 yrs ago] was i rates dropping like a stone all along the yeild curve... consumer durable goods were ancient on average [auto's were like 12 yo on average]. Can't happen now, there is no way for corperate debt service to go down, and no way to seek wage concessions [UAL?]. Layoffs will continue [OK unemployment may be lagging, but it'll lag all the way to 12% IMO], average age of auto = youngest ever, housing same, etc etc. top of the cycle in virutally all durable goods... all at the time when the entire economy is at record leverage. JMtake DAK

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