Glenn,
Ray and I discussed this book briefly a couple weeks ago. Let's examine a few of the book's core arguments:
The authors argue that there are "unimaginably large" amounts of raw fuel available, from oil to coal to uranium, and no risk of running short.
We already have run "short", in that spare capacity has dwindled to 1.5-2mbpd (see Simmon's presentation posted by Triffin). Are there still "unimaginably large" amounts of raw fuel in existence? Of course there are - no human being can fully grasp a number as large as 1 or 1.2 trillion (roughly the number of barrels of oil left on this earth), but that of course is completely irrelevant. What's relevant is whether or not this fuel is really as "available" from a supply standpoint as the authors contend, and whether it's going to be in the future.
What's funny is that the authors embrace the 2nd law of thermodynamics but not the first:
To the authors, the most important is that modern civilization depends -- inevitably -- on "waste."
Actually, modern civlization depends on energy (the ability to do work), and currently we depend on 80 million barrels per day worth of energy (and growing). To become energy independent, America would need to cut consumption by 58% (the amount of fossil fuel we import). As it stands today, modern civilization in the United States depends on foreign oil imports. No waste-elimination measures can cut fossil fuel demand by 58%. No alternative energy systems exist that can produce more than a fraction of the energy we currently derive from oil.
By starting with false assumptions (there's plenty of energy, the first law of thermodynamics is irrelevant), and by omitting, ignoring, and distorting all evidence to the contrary, you can 'prove' anything you want (just ask the 9/11 Commission).
Jesse |
