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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: KeepItSimple who wrote (151007)2/13/2002 11:35:32 AM
From: reaper  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
KIS, I THINK you're not quite right (though I haven't read the actual source document yet). Retail ex autos and ex gasoline (so something that approximates "spending at malls") was about +0.6, which is a pretty good result but certainly nothing to get all lathered up about.

That said, you are right in your characterization. When retail sales are bad, but part of why they are bad is LOWER gas prices, then everybody says "well, excluding gas retail sales were actually really good". I don't hear anybody excluding gas this AM. Also, what happened to the argument that lower energy prices were going to provide a great savings to the consumer so that he could spend on other stuff. Guess we'll forget that argument for the time being as well.

Retail sales were OK, not disastrous, not great. But with energy prices moving up, credit availability drying up, joblessness rising, and retailers discounting like crazy to get business, we're not too far from the ledge.

Cheers
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