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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host
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To: Kirk © who wrote (15104)10/2/2001 2:33:57 AM
From: Skeeter Bug   of 42834
 
>>You've done well. The question is can you continue to do well and outperform equites going forward or will you eventually make your own QQQ blunder?<<

that is a darn good question. there is always risk vs reward. i won't make a qqq blunder b/c i don't invest in tea leaves like uncle bob.

"what the hell, we're in a bear market, there is no fundamental reason for the qqqs to go up, but invest a HUGE portion of your portfolio if you aren't risk adverse. why? b/c i feel LUCKY!"

that is dumb.

kirk, i have little visibility here. part of me wants to start nibbling again at what i perceive as value. part of me *knows* that the biggest bubble in the history of the world will not be resolved this quickly with this low amount of pain and suffering. of course, i don't KNOW this, but history keeps yelling it in my ear!

i look at msft trading at near a 35 pe with negative eps growth and say "wtf?" i looked at micron trading at 5 times sales in a q where they would lose about a $500 million and i say "wtf?" thank goodness mu stock has taken a beating in the last few weeks, but it is still 2 to 3 times sales.

should i buy a 35+ pe stock with eps that probably won't grow going forward (imho)? i can't do it. in fact, i can see a 10 pe. the msft's and the mu's of the world are acting as my barometer for everything else. they are both still at bubble valuations given prospects, imho. people buy *name* and *history* and *tradability* instead buying well thought ought investments based on future potential. when those creatures reach fair value, i'll be nibbling. but, alas, we have a LONG way to go down before that happens, if it happens.
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