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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)

INTC 37.51

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3:59 PM EST

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To: Elmer who wrote (151651)	12/8/2001 1:07:45 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (1) of 186894

Elmer, think things will continue to get worse for AMD. The reason being that the more I think about this yield problem capacity thing the more it seems that poor binsplits are probably the answer. There are enough AMD processors available in the top speed grade, and the overall supply is plentiful. I don't think there is any way to test your hypothesis about poor yields, since the supply at AMD exceeded demand every single quarter since Q4 2000, which makes this quarter the 5th quarter for this to happen. We could speculate about the yields if we ever get to a situation where there is a shortage of AMD processors. Somehow, I don't think it will happen. My prediction is that in Q1 2002, when Intel's Northwood comes online, in addition to the .18u P4 lines, the supply problems Intel has had will be worked out, and we will be back to the glut scenario with dropping ASPs. Joe

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