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Technology Stocks : J.D. Edwards debut! (JDEC)
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To: Wizard who wrote (151)10/6/1998 12:11:00 PM
From: treetopflier   of 583
 
Well the conference call was illuminating - NOT!

So JDEC execs think that because they are seeing abbreviated sales cycles that they have successfully differentiated themselves. Probably what the PSFT execs where thinking in April.

It is BS. They are seeing abbreviated sales cycles because there are many panicky buyers who haven't stepped up to the Y2K or EUC issue until very late. Typical of AS400 shops.

To boot, JDEC is giving them the option to ramp licenses. Oh boy, oh boy. So we can buy just a few in the name of 'flexibility' instead of being pushed into licensing the whole shebang. Great. Now you have an AS400 shop with its toe in the JDEC water, receiving a TON of complex software to install, with no resources from the outside or the vendor, and a drop dead date of 1/1/2000 or whatever the EUC date is.

Guess what. This is COMPLEX stuff. The license ramp up they want WON'T happen. Worse yet, when these projects starting now slip past the millennium much worse things will happen. The lock JDEC thinks it gets on a shop for future product sales will be broken when the top IS exec gets the axe because he/she blew the Y2K or EUC project all to hell.

Top execs at JDEC don't get it. Yes, they peak a little later than the ERP/MFG/FIN big boys, but just because their marketplace is used to simple to install software and they waited later. Much like PC buyers - "I'll update those spreadsheets later." Yes, I know the analogy is poor, but it fits.

I'm adding to my short position here. Looking for mid-20s when we resume the decline, and we will resume soon. Fools rally underway.

ttf
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