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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks
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To: Bill Wexler who wrote (15163)11/9/1998 1:30:00 PM
From: Blacksmith   of 18691
 
>>This should be required reading by all small investors -
>>particularly those that are wondering why shorting stocks in
>>the current market is akin to peeing into a hurricane.

Perhaps you are right, although it seems to me that some of the BS stocks have run up more than the overall stock market, and may be good shorts now. I am too much of a pessimist to be long now on a run-up based on market euphoria over a well-timed rate cut. Until recently I was mostly in cash, and now I am building a short portfolio. I certainly wouldn't short stocks just because they are overvalued,
but try to wait for big run-ups as well.

I am short
ABTE @~7-1/2
ABTX @~16-1/2, covered ~15
AND @~12
BTIM @10-7/8
CYSP @7-7/8
DTLN @29-1/8
GBUR @12-7/8, covered at 11-3/8
GERN @18-1/2
HPRT @7-3/16
HTEI @9-7/8
MCHM @9-1/8
SRCM @~9-3/4
UTEK @18-1/4

The only short that is really in the red is SRCM, and even that I am sure I can cover for a gain if I am not bought in first. I am trying to find more SRCM to short.

I also bought LCOS puts on Friday and today. AMZN looks to me like a good short, but the puts are way too expensive and I don't want to be short an internet stock even if I could find shares. Although it is hard to believe, there are analysts that are now pushing AMZN. Where were they when it was 80?

I certainly wouldn't short YHOO unless it really started to tank. It seems to me YHOO could just as easily go up 100% as down 80%, as there is no logic to its current price and it is still a favorite.

Whether or not I am 'peeing into a hurricane' with these shorts remains to be seen.
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