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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: Jim McCormack who wrote (15224)8/5/1997 3:07:00 AM
From: Scott C. Lemon   of 42771
 
Hello Jim,

I'm glad to see that someone else understands where innovation and new inventions come from!

> The Threat is from the "Sides" not "Front"

I don't know that it's a threat ... unless you don't pay attention. If a company is aware of it's surroundings then it should be able to capitalize on new markets and technologies. It's when people start to think that they know everything that they learn the most!

> I Like Novell... I do have reservations however, I think that while
> they focus on the direct competitors they need to be wary of the
> new upstarts. The true competition in networking OS systems is
> likely to emerge from a "Newcomer" not on the Radar screen
> today....

When I go to trade shows, people often can not understand why I spend the majority of my time walking the periphery of the show floor. I rarely walk through the giant, glitzy booths ... for me it's a waste of time. They don't contain what I'm interested in. I want to see true vision ... innovation that is raw and unfinished ... like you say, stuff that is not yet "on the Radar screen".

> The object of the game is to create wealth. Now you can directly
> compete within a "Class of software" and fight for market share in
> an existing segment or you can create a whole new segmnent and keep
> it for yourself for a while. Thats how you grow! Create something
> new an unique and own it for as long as you can.

I'm not quite sure if you think this is an unknown. I am actually well aware of the concepts that you describe. To me they have become common sense. Now if only you could explain to me how to accomplish these goals inside of Novell! ;-)

> The Case in Point is CITRIX. I urge those who have not looked at
> the software to do so. This package is a huge threat to Novell.

Wow. I don't know that I can agree with this statement. Citrix has been around a long time and they are lucky they sold cheap to Microsoft. Citrix could be a threat to Java, however it returns users back to mini-computer days by running all applications on one NT box and remote displaying data on a Windows box, a cheap WinTerm, or supposedly even a Java terminal. But a threat to Novell? I'm not sure why you see it that way. Please explain ...

> It is a company that is growing very fast.

That has sat for years unseen (relatively) until Microsoft saw the Java threat. They needed a quick solution and Citrix had the product.

> The software has been purchased by Microsoft and will be in the 5.0
> NT release.

Because Microsoft wanted remote display for NT. If Citrix would not have done a deal then they would have been dead. Microsoft would have created the technology themselves. Citrix was squeezed hard.

> One day (Soon?) this Citrix company will rival Novell in terms of
> sales and importance for enterprise environments. The product is
> that powerful.

I won't agree right now. The product will be given away by Microsoft. What they got is what they got. They will see no ongoing revenue ... I don't know what the future products would be. Microsoft doesn't pay royalties for a free give-away.

> Go to the site www.citrix.com and run the demos. It has a
> great way to embed any Windows app into a web page for Instant
> access across the Web via an active X control.

Cool when it's one user. How many people will be running on that one machine? 2? 5? 10? If NT can barely support me on a box today, then how will it suddenly gain scalability for numerous users? I've played with the product. Run it in benchmarking ... real world tests.

> Think of it - Take any existing windows app - any - and it is
> accessable across the Web in minutes with no coding changes. And it
> executes very fast thanks to the ICA protocol.

Agreed. One user, one computer. That works well. And ICA, you obviously know, is the Windows version of an X protocol.

> From MS office to custom C++, VB,
> Powerbuilder, Notes - all of them.... Got a Browser? If you got
> Explorer you got Windows Apps across the Web. After you launch the
> windows app you don't even need the browser. You no longer need to
> install windows apps locally. Go on the road with Explorer and an
> ISP and access all your Windows apps at the office via the Web with
> nothing but your browser - the network is the computer.

Now be careful here ... remember that you need to have the computer at home. One for one. Or suffer the consequences of a multiuser environment. So the network is merely the connection between your mobile computer and the one back home. Wow ... I guess that Intel likes that ... two computers for everyone!

> Run Citrix Winframe as an Intranet - run it as an Extranet. Very
> impressive technology!

Reminds me of M/PM ... one computer and a bunch of terminals. I'm sorry but this doesn't impress me because it is Microsofts attempt (and it might be successful) to strangle the emerging world of true distributed objects and execution. Freedom to choose as long as it's Windows!

> Puts Novell to shame. Why didn't they come up with this innovation
> for Netware?

Now this one really has me lost. What for NetWare? NetWare doesn't run Win32 applications. What apps do you want remote displayed? To me this comment is like saying "Puts Cisco to shame. Why didn't Cisco come up with this innovation for their routers?"

It doesn't fit. I would be more likely to say "Why didn't Microsoft do it sooner?"

> This is an example of new wealth being created in the form of a new
> market segment for Network Software.

Sorry. Old technology that has been around for years. Been there. Done that.

> Novell desperately needs to create a new segment and some new
> wealth. Borderware is a bold effort. Is it unique? Will they have
> the segment to themselves? I think not. Haven't studied it yet so I
> don't know.

First, Borderware is a trademarked name for some non-Novell product. I think it's some firewall product.

BorderManager is Novell's offering. I'm interested to learn about your thinking above. Does any company have a segment to themselves? I know that many companies lead in a segment. Just as I believe in distributed objects, I believe in Content Routing. Packet routing is a thing of the past ... hierarchical caching is the next evolutionary step.

> NDS in my opinion is "Nothing" but marketing smoke and mirrors. The
> pratical implementaion of a unified directory is a dream. Like
> world peace ... We all know that LDAP gateways between proprietary
> products will be the rule.

Uh ... I'm not sure that we all know this. I would suggest a more loose coupling in which LDAP will be the most current access protocol, and that referrals will link various directories. And I believe that NDS fits into this very well. I also believe that there will never be *one* directory platform.

> IBM has all but stated this is the strategy. NDS is just another
> LDAP gateway service to them. It has little strategic value. No
> money to be made here....

I'm sorry, I missed this. When you say "all but stated this" exactly where? I'm not sure I read the same documents.

> Its like trying to unify e-mail - the gateways take care of all the
> details so it will never happen. See MSmail and CCmail and Internet
> Mail(X.400)for reference.

But isn't SMTP/POP3/IMAP4 becoming the unifying force? These protocols, couple with MIME seem to be doing what you suggest ... unifying e-mail.

> New Wealth via a new an unique product offering. Boarderware and
> NDS will not bring Novell back.

Wow ... again I'm surprised by this statement. Above you stated "Haven't studied it yet so I don't know.", but now you say no way? I will stand by my beliefs.

> Novell had better come up with somethig as Citrix is yet another
> competitor that has managed to steal away dollars that would have
> been spent on Netware....

Again, I would ask you to please explain this. I'm sorry but i just do not understand this. This is actually more crippling to Microsoft in that now a small business could buy one copy of NT and then a couple of cheap terminals. In the past they would have to buy all copies of NT!

> Citrix as part of NT - for free - WOW! Netware is in deep trouble.

For free! Citrix is in trouble!

> NT 5.0 will redefine software success it will be so hot! You better
> come up with a counter balance for this new feature or it could
> be the difference for many many shops.

I guess this depends on how things fit. What you perceive as the future.

> Good luck and work fast Novell!

Always! (I have to be in at 7:30am tomorrow! Goodnight!)

Scott C. Lemon
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