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Technology Stocks : Vantive Corporation

VNTV 77.60

+2.6%

Jan 12 4:00 PM EST

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To: Kevin Rose who wrote (1522)	1/29/1998 9:20:00 PM
From: Will Cunningham	of 3033

Headline: Vantive Corp: On-Track Quarter And Great Rev. Growth But No Triggers Author: Brian E. Skiba 1(415)274-5360 Rating: 2 Company: VNTV Country: OPR CUS Industry: DATAPR Ticker : VNTV Rank(Prev): 2-Outperform Rank(Curr): 2-Outperform Price : $26 7/8 52wk Range: $38-15 Price Target: $32 Today's Date : 01/23/98 Fiscal Year : DEC ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ EPS 1996 1997 1998 1999 QTR. Actual Prev. Curr. Prev. Curr. Prev. Curr. 1st: 0.04A 0.10A 0.10A 0.13E 0.13E - -E - -E 2nd: 0.13A 0.12A 0.12A 0.16E 0.16E - -E - -E 3rd: 0.11A 0.14A 0.14A 0.22E 0.22E - -E - -E 4th: 0.11A 0.18E 0.19A 0.29E 0.29E - -E - -E ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Year:$ 0.39A $ 0.53E $ 0.55E $ 0.80E $ 0.80E $ - -E $ - -E Street Est.: $ 0.52E $ 0.53E $ 0.78E $ 0.79E $ - -E $ 1.10E ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Price (As of 1/22): $26 7/8 Revenue (1998): 185.2 Mil. Return On Equity (98): N/A Proj. 5yr EPS Grth: 50.0 % Shares Outstanding: 25.2 Mil. Dividend Yield: N/A Mkt Capitalization: 677.38 Mil. P/E 1997; 1998 : 48.9 X; 33.6 X Current Book Value: $2.21 /sh Convertible: YES Debt-to-Capital: 0.6 % Disclosure(s): C ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ * The company produced an on-track quarter with 80% top-line growth with revenues of $37.7 million and an EPS of $0.19 per diluted share. * We have no revisions in our model. We continue to tread carefully in the customer interaction area. Pressure from the large ERP vendors over time will likely reshape the opportunities here. Siebel Systems has surpassed Vantive on both an annual and quarterly run rate, questioning Vantive's leadership position. * We remain Outperform (2)-Rated on the stock. While it is trading at only 34X our 1998 EPS of $0.80, it lacks a catalyst to move it dramatically over the next several quarters. Our target price remains $32 (40X our 1998 EPS of $0.80). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ lehman.com

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