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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up!
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To: Ramsey Su who wrote (1527)7/17/1997 11:32:00 AM
From: Allen Benn   of 10309
 
>have you ever considered shorting MSFT or INTEL?
>They are certainly exposed to being swept over by the third wave.

The PC paradigm will peak possibly for years, and then slowly become relatively less important as the 3rd wave becomes prominent, but will not disappear for decades. Timing the effects on WinTel is risky and certainly not worth shorting now, if ever.

The effects of the 3rd wave on Intel is difficult to assess. No doubt Intel will be a major supplier of processors for all sorts of smart devices - they already are. Economies of scale along with Intel's culture, which dictates participation in anything silicon just in case it becomes important, should shield Intel from a major correction. Intel's only downside is the monopolistic pricing they enjoy on PC architecture. Once the decline in PC growth becomes broadly recognized, Intel's price should consolidate over a few years before continuing its inevitable upward climb. Hardly a reason to short the stock.

MSFT is in a more precarious position, being much more dependent on the continued growth of the PC paradigm. Gates seems to see limits to growth without even considering a paradigm shift. His vision appears to be guiding him toward trying to reinvent MSFT as a gateway content company in a mixture that only he sees clearly. If he succeeds, short sellers will take a bath, possibly a huge one. But if anything goes wrong...

Life is too short to short.

Allen
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