ASND has a lot going for it long term but it will not be able to command its old multiples until it demonstrates that it has regained its growth curve. most wall street analysts subscribe to the "cockroach" theory...when you see one bad q, you're likely to see more.
Probably true, for now. But this could change pretty fast: if the next quarter starts to look really good (MAX TNT shipping in Europe, positive customer feedback, NTT and UUNet revenue coming in OK, etc.), the mood on ASND could change by, say, halfway through the quarter. If the optimists are right, and this quarter was an aberration, I think we'll see it in the stock price by Thanksgiving. If the next quarter starts to look anywhere near as weak as this one, then ASND's P/E likely stays lower for a year or more.
Personally, I'm guardedly optimistic. I don't yet see convincing evidence that COMS and CSCO will clean their clocks in remote access, though the danger is certainly there. But they simply must execute well now. One quarter can be bad luck. Two quarters is a pattern. |
