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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here
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To: dougjn who wrote (1531)7/5/1998 9:42:00 AM
From: JMD   of 12823
 
Doug, the AFCI fiasco seems very management related, as in: great technology but who's running the store? CEO's just don't (or shouldn't) take a powder in crisis. The sales guys jumped ship just a bit earlier. All of this speaks to an inability to hold steady as bigger, stronger rivals come along and pick off the best talent. So I agree with you that AFCI is very vulnerable to takeover at the present time. I'm sure TLAB doesn't own 9% cause they think AFCI guys are just real nice folks, i.e., they must believe strongly in the technology.
But this is where it gets real nasty in the telecom biz: what RBOC is going to buy AFCI product now? The customer is looking for a stable supplier, one who can provide service/support/backup and who will be around next year and the year after that to provide upgrades, etc. AFCI has to get a new CEO who will have to spend 6 months holding customers' hands, the sales cycle gets stretched even further, the pressure on the balance sheet grows, . . . . .
If the CIEN deal hadn't just gone down, I'd have given you 3:1 on a TLAB takeover. Even with CIEN, I'd say it's better than even money simply because TLAB might want AFCI 'off the market' and out of the clutches of CSCO/LU. All in all, I'd say your AFCI purchase has a decent chance of working out and with any luck you'll wind up having bought TLAB/CSCO/LU at a discount. Even so, you might be in for an Alka Seltzer moment (or two). Happy Fourth (even thought I'm posting on the fifth). Mike Doyle
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