Telebras (TBH) & Brazil Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil

TBH 0.435

+8.7%

Jan 2 9:30 AM EST

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To: Steve Fancy who wrote (15325)	5/17/1999 12:59:00 PM
From: wl9839	Read Replies (1) of 22640

Steve, I am a little surprised by the strength of the sell-off in the Brazilian market since it seems that, barring a real interest rate rise by the Fed tomorrow, the BC would cut rates again on Wednesday. As with the recent past, this should trigger at least a 2 point rise in TBH. I would have guessed that a sell-off down to 100 would have occurred today as I belive it is options expiration day in Sao Paulo, but usually the stock price stays a little closer to the strike price. I would predict that if the FOMC's worst action is to show upward bias that we would be testing the 105 strike price this Friday in New York (but with a close below). If the FOMC does actually raise rates, I think we'll end the week at 100 with the BC action canceling out most of any bad FOMC action. As for UBB, I think that this should be viewed as a temporary buying opportunity as it has shown over the last few months the ability to make real money in times of high interest rates. WJ

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