I am still long IDTC, but I too cringe at the level emotion many posters display on that thread. The company is not in any way analogous to the *typical* Mr. Pink short, i.e. fraudulent crims at the helm. I think that His short is based purely on the events driving the spinoff/IPO of Net2Phone, and the possibility of new valuations therein. But the company is building a serious bandwidth (wholesale) presence, and I think/am hoping that management will come up with innovative ways to exploit it. The presence of aol, GE, and Softbank as the bigshot investors gives a VERY big boost of credibility. There is no doubt that telephony will be huge, and that Net2Phone is first out of the gate; it will be incorporated directly into the Netscape browser and will be offered in various chat forms on aol. Whether or not management can turn all that into a lean mean profit machine remains to be seen.
What concerns me most about the company is its proven inability to meet earnings expectations; they have an awful/acrimonious relationship with the Street, as is outlined in Howard Jonas's book, On a Roll. They haven't yet hit on all cylinders--there always seems to be an excuse. They also have shall we say inarticulate spokespeople.
Jonas himself is a huge wildcard in how this will all play out. His tumultuous relationship withe Street has created serious credibility problems that are totally unnecessary and retarded. To his credit though, he may finally be making peace with the Street, if the IPO deal is what I think it is.
It is thus with the greatest reluctance that I stand, at least for now, on the opposite side of the trade from Mr. Pink. I will however bail at the first evidence of crimhood or unsavory shenanigans.
Yamakita |
