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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's
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To: Jeff who started this subject11/17/2002 11:04:47 AM
From: exp  Read Replies (1) of 30712
 
A few thoughts on "Is it still a BEAR or maybe a new BULL":

(1) Still a Bear market; no chance of a new cyclical Bull a la Zeev's prediction due to the underlying fundamentals and the prevailing investor sentiment nowhere near any bottom

(2) Yet, it is a powerful Bear market rally with still more to go to possibly rival those of May 2000, April 2001, and Sept 2001 (impossible to predict the top as it is a function of investor sentiment)

(3) This rally is due to the confluence of many things (such as the expectation of the 4 year cycle low) and the fuel igniting it came mostly, if not exclusively, from the Fed massive liquidity injections but the MAIN reason is simply this: after a 9-month 1000 point (nearly 50%) COMP drop a sizable retrace of the drop is normal if not quite predictable

(4) More bullish predictions made by Zeev and others so far proved somewhat more accurate than the more bearish predictions on this thread; yet, aside for Jeff's retrace which gave specific targets (COMP +/- 1250 for the top from 1000 bottom), calls by Zeev and others lacked specificity to the point of being little more than wild guesses such as calling for COMP 1400, 1500, 1700, 1800, or even higher this year (take your lottery pick <gg>)

(5) I still believe that this chart will prove to be the MOST useful one in calling the top:
vtoreport.com
Sentiment clearly tops fundamentals in gauging bear rally tops.
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