Eric, from the article:
The new measures would drop the price cap on Russian oil to $45 from $60 per barrel. Oil prices have declined since the cap was first adopted in 2023, so the point would be to restore how much the limit squeezes Russian revenues. This is huge, but it's also very much needed. The original $60 price cap on oil was one of the most effective sanctions imposed on RuZZia. It severely limited the ports where RuZZian oil tankers can dock at, and it curtailed the insurance that shippers could purchase on these tankers.
RuZZia countered by building up a so-called "shadow fleet" of tankers. Estimates vary as to what percentage of oil revenues come from the shadow fleet. Google AI gives a range of 40% to 84%, which sounds like a reasonable (if imprecise) range.
But although the shadow fleet makes it look like RuZZia is impervious to the oil price cap, that's not the case at all. For example, the G7 has taken further measures to sanction banks and businesses that accept oil from the shadow fleet. It's complicated, and often the news isn't "sexy" enough to make the headlines.
The following link describes in great detail what is going on with RuZZia's shadow fleet. It's long, but there is a graph that is particularly relevant:
Moscow’s Fading Shadow Fleet: Russian Oil Revenues are More Vulnerable than Ever (Substack, Navigating Russia)
It shows that, compared to 2025, RuZZia is relying less on its shadow fleet and more on regular oil tankers. Although the article attributes this shift to the success of secondary sanctions, it should also be noted that the price of oil is pretty cheap these days, like around $65/barrel. That means RuZZia doesn't really need its shadow fleet that much.
By lowering the price cap to $45/barrel, RuZZia will once again be forced to rely heavily on its shadow fleet. And then the West can regain its leverage over RuZZian oil sales.
It's a slow tightening of the noose. But don't tell the PooTin cucks. They're celebrating RuZZia's central bank lowering interest rates from 21% to 20% (woohoo).
They're also celebrating RuZZia reporting a drop in inflation from 10% to 6%, which is super-suspicious. Ask me again later why I think that is. It's more than just wishful thinking.
Tenchusatsu |
