Biogen Message Board - Msg: 19837143

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Biotech / Medical : Biogen

BIIB 182.50

+4.5%

Jan 6 3:59 PM EST

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To: mopgcw who wrote (1543)	2/23/2004 3:58:21 AM
From: mopgcw	Read Replies (1) of 1686

GS: Biogen Idec, Inc. EPS (FY Dec) 2003E $1.00, 2004E $1.49 Outperform/Neutral After about 20% appreciation of BIIB yesterday, we expect shares to trade around $50-55 in the near term. We continue to expect $1B potential of Antegren in MS and $0.3-0.5B in Crohn's disease. We expect premium pricing but limited cannibalization of Avonex. The early filing of Antegren has significantly enhanced investor sentiment towards BIIB, which could lead to multiple expansion and less concern about near term earnings. We continue to rate BIIB Outperform based on earnings acceleration from potential launch of Antegren in 2005 and data from 4 Phase III trials with combined market potential of over $2B in 2004/05. BIIB shares are trading at 36X our 2004 EPS or PEG of 1.6, which are in line with the group averages. The risks include slower sales, development failures, reimbursement cuts and generic competition. Our coverage view remains Neutral.

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