Senate 2006 Outlook - Jan. 23
REDSTATE
By noemail@noemail.org (Adam C)
Since the last Senate Outlook on October 16th, a few major developments have happened on the Senate landscape. First, with Senator Corzine?s election as Governor of NJ, the Democrats now have 4 open seats to defend (MN, VT, NJ, MD) and with Senator Lott?s announcement that he will seek re-election , the only Republican to step down is Senator Frist who is honoring a term limit pledge. Remember that in 2004 only 1 incumbent lost in the Senate (Daschle) while all other party switches were in open seats. Looking at the 5 open seats, we see that 1 is in a Republican state (TN +14), 1 is in a swing state (MN -3), and 3 are in Democratic states (NJ -7, MD -13, VT -20).
Second, Tradesports has started their futures markets where people have to put their money where their mouth is to guesstimate how races will turn out in 2006. I will use this data extensively for ordering the likelihood of races changing party hands.
Third, some very recent polls have shown some good news for Republican candidates, especially in NJ and MD. All the unreliable (but plentiful) WSJ/Zogby interactive internet polls for January were just released. I don?t put any real weight on these polls unless no other data is available. Their methodology is not reliable due to a self-selection bias.
Fourth, a very strange intra-party fight is occurring in Hawai?i where Congressman Case is challenging the long-standing, incumbent, octogenarian Seantor Akaka.
I would highly recommend that RedState readers and diarists from these states keep us up to date on their states and think about starting a blog following the race. It can become a center of grass roots activism in a state as Thune v. Daschle and South Dakota Politics did and continue to do. It also allows alternative media to compete with the (often liberal) major newspaper in some states.
Finally, using the Tradesports odds, the result of the election today would be party switches in PA and MD and no other changes leaving the Senate at 55-44-1. But a slight Democratic tide (5-10%) would put MT, OH, MO, TN, and RI in the D column as a slight tide the other way would put NJ and MN in the R column. So the extremes are +3 to -6 for the Republicans, while a -2 to even is most likely.
This update was based on the last update I did on Oct. 16th.
Details on each pickup possibility below the fold:
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