|
Earnings will come on strong in 2000 and 2001+, but I doubt the stock is 130 at that time--UNLESS G* is a bigger success than expected. Estimates for G* in 2001 are $9+/share, going to almost $16/share in 2002. That accounts for a large portion of LOR's earnings at the time. Estimates for 2002 for LOR are near $4.50/share. If growth looks phenomenal then, 130+ looks definite. These estimates so far out in the future are tough to analyze with any accuracy, especially with G* still an unlaunched computer model. Once G* demand is a little easier to predict, LOR will get a boost. That demand will probably not accurately be known until several successful launches have passed, especially the 12 sat launches on the Zenit rockets. Until then, Skynet/Satmex, Orion, Cyberstar, SS/L, and ??? will have to be the workhorses. At this point I look at my initial premise when investing in Loral---I surmised that in 4 to 5 years, any one division of Loral, when taken individually, would be worth much more than my initial investment in the whole company(at that point, $13!!). I can still do the math and make the same case. There is a huge margin of safety in my investment in this company because of this fact. |
