Sam, I chart RSI and a MACD of RSI on daily and 1-hour bars.
On the daily bars, the RSI is indeed very high, though not quite as high as it got in late February.
What happened after that late-February RSI peak is very interesting, though - the stock price continued to rise from 20 to 28, while the RSI fell!
On the 1-hour bars, AAPL is mid-scale, with plenty of room for short-term action. On the 1-hour bars, I have seen the MACD of the RSI go into "saturation", hanging around the 90's for some time.
I rely on these indicators quite a bit, but the negative cross-over in late February was clearly a bad sell call. There were good ones in January and May, but the weakness was short-lived. I think simply holding on may be the best strategy.
BTW, I am a "short term" player, having bought-in just the other day at 31 1/2. If I were in closer to today's price, I'd consider your 37 sell point more seriously.
Clearly, there will be a correction at some point, but for now I think we are still just at the beginning of a break-out. Overbought, yes, but not outrageously so - yet. |
