Political Points
Regularly Updated Political Insight and Analysis
From The Wall Street Journal's Capital Bureau
February 3, 2006; Page A4
DEMOCRATS SEEK political points from election-year budget cuts.
[Washwire]
On top of $14 billion in "discretionary" spending, Treasury's Snow says budget will trim "tens of billions" from entitlement programs such as Medicare. White House eyes continued momentum from 2005, when Congress trimmed or eliminated 89 of 154 programs Bush targeted.
But budget restraint doesn't spark broad public interest. In the new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, just 8% call deficit reduction the nation's most important 2006 goal.
Democrats hope some churchgoers, drawn to Republicans over cultural issues, leave them over social service reductions.
FEMA'S FUTURE remains cloudy.
Homeland Security Secretary Chertoff will soon announce plan to "retool" the agency, amid speculation it will lose emergency functions. Under one option, Coast Guard would control disaster response, HUD temporary housing, and HHS medical response and emergency social services. Nine in 10 blacks and Americans under 35 call rebuilding Gulf Coast an "absolute priority."
At least four House bills, one sponsored by a Republican, would restore FEMA's independence. Hillary Clinton backs idea in Senate.
WHITE HOUSE WANTS Patriot Act compromise.
With short-term extension expiring in five weeks, Bush aides work to keep security enhancements while accommodating bipartisan civil-liberties concerns. "It's a balance we always need to work to protect," says New Hampshire Republican Sen. Sununu.
Critics seek to alter provisions involving "national security letters," which prevent targets from speaking out. By 58%-41%, independents are "extremely" or "quite" concerned that warrantless wiretaps could violate privacy.
Terrorism falls to Americans' fourth-ranking priority behind health care, Iraq and jobs.
UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCE: Iraqi vote appears to have undercut Bush's leverage. "Elections may have encouraged the American public to support troop withdrawal," say Journal/NBC pollsters Peter Hart and Bill McInturff. Even 51% of conservatives back reductions.
BIPARTISAN STRATEGY? Intelligence chief Negroponte pursues idea of House Democratic staffers for unit to better communicate threat information to local police. Most men say they aren't much worried about terror attack in the U.S.; a majority of women are "very" or "fairly" worried.
ADMINISTRATION SCRAMBLES for new FDIC chief after expected nomination fizzles for New York Banking Superintendent Diana Taylor, the companion of New York City Mayor Bloomberg. Speculation focuses on deputy Social Security commissioner James Lockhart. Pluralities in all regions except the South, which splits evenly, expect the economy to get worse rather than better in 2006.
HELPING HAND? Antipoverty advocates criticize Rice's plan to centralize foreign aid within State Department; Columbia economist Sachs fears poverty-fighting will lose out "to political purposes" in foreign aid spending. Some 37% of Americans give Bush high marks as "a world leader"; 44% rate him poorly.
CARTER JOINS groups in seeking to stop Palestinian aid cutoff.
USAID remains mum on review after Hamas election victory. Some U.S. officials suggest nongovernmental projects can continue.
Former President Carter warns against stopping funds benefiting education and wastewater treatment. James Zogby of the Arab American Institute accuses lawmakers proposing cutoffs of "willed ignorance."
Evangelical Protestants split on whether U.S. should deal with Hamas; 53% of nonevangelicals favor diplomacy.
MINOR MEMOS: Half of Democrats say Hillary or Bill Clinton speak for party; fewer than 10% choose chairman Dean or congressional leaders Reid and Pelosi. ... Half of women pick figure skating as Olympic sport they'd most like to try; plurality of men choose bobsledding.
* * *
Thursday, Feb. 2
Climate Change: Leaders of the Senate Energy Committee are beginning to explore the shape and political prospects for legislation that would impose mandatory controls on carbon dioxide and other so-called greenhouse gases, man-made emissions that appear to be accelerating global warming by accumulating in the atmosphere.
Alex Flint, staff director for Sen. Pete V. Domenici (R., N.M.), chairman of the panel, said the senator "wants to move as quickly as possible on the issue." He added that the "the political ground on climate change is shifting faster than I expected."
Sen. Domenici and Sen. Jeff Bingaman (D., N.M.) released a study Thursday1 on various regulatory options and their staff directors said the committee plans a day-long conference in coming weeks to get comments from industry leaders and others on the matter. The Edison Electric Institute, which represents most of the nation's electric utilities, said it was preparing to "weigh in on many of the issues" being raised by the committee.
After the study was released, Sen. James M. Inhofe (R., Okla.), chairman of the Senate Committee on Environment, said in a statement that his committee had primary jurisdiction over climate change and emissions and that it was doubtful whether the Senate would approve a mandatory regulatory approach. --John J. Fialka
* * *
Opening Lines: U.S. Trade Representative Rob Portman and Korea Minister of Trade Hyun Chong Kim plan to announce Thursday afternoon that they've agreed to start negotiating a free-trade pact.
Bush administration officials hope to complete an agreement with Korea by mid-2007 when President Bush's trade-negotiating authority is set to expire. The move toward negotiations comes after South Korea -- the U.S.'s seventh largest trading partner -- took steps in recent days to further open its domestic market to foreign-made movies. A final deal could boost U.S. exports of agriculture products, aircraft, and heavy machinery, but important issues remain, including U.S. concerns about widening access to the Korean market for American automakers.
With global trade talks mired in disputes over farm subsidies, the Bush administration is ramping up efforts to negotiate trade deals on a targeted basis. Talks are under way or about to begin with several countries, including Panama, Colombia, Ecuador, and Thailand. --Greg Hitt
* * *
Security Concern: Islamist terrorism, especially from al Qaeda, remains the chief national security threat to the U.S. in a world where components of weapons of mass destruction are increasingly abundant, the Bush administration's top spy master said.
John Negroponte, director of national intelligence, also identified Iran and North Korea as particular challenges for the U.S. because of their secretive political systems and their programs to develop ballistic missiles and nuclear power technologies. Negroponte said these and other threats have triggered an "exponential increase" in the number of groups and individuals being tracked by his 15 spy agencies.
In addition, Negroponte said the rise of India and China, and the growing global scramble for energy assets, pose new problems for the Bush administration. The search for energy, he said, is now driving the foreign policies of growing economic powers, like Beijing and New Delhi, while surging oil prices are strengthening hostile regimes in Iran, Syria and Venezuela. --Jay Solomon
• Read the full article2 on Negroponte's testimony, and text of his prepared statement3.
* * *
Wednesday, Feb. 1
[Alito]
Alito
Alito-Palooza: Justice Samuel Alito stopped by the White House Wednesday afternoon for a ceremonial swearing in, with President Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney and a galaxy of Republican legal stars, from Reagan Attorney General Edwin Meese III to Nixon White House Counsel Charles Colson, in attendance.
Alito actually had taken the oath of office in a private ceremony at the Supreme Court on Tuesday, but the White House event was an opportunity for retired Justice Sandra Day O'Connor's successor to thank the Bush administration officials and former law clerks who helped shepherd him to a 58-42 confirmation vote in the Senate. Chief Justice John Roberts did the honors before a front row filled with Justices Antonin Scalia, David Souter, Clarence Thomas, Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Stephen Breyer, along with Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R., Tenn.) and Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Arlen Specter (R., Pa.).
In the third row sat White House Counsel Harriet Miers, the president's first choice for the seat Alito now holds. Miers withdrew from consideration under fire from the president's political allies. While the conservative legal activists who packed the East Room have high hopes that Alito will undo many of the Warren Court's constitutional doctrines, Bush took a moment to pay tribute to a representative of that liberal legacy: Cissy Marshall, widow of Justice Thurgood Marshall, who attended the ceremony and sat next to Virginia Thomas, wife of her husband's successor. Alito's swearing in chores aren't over yet, however. The Supreme Court's spokeswoman said a public investiture ceremony will be scheduled later. --Jess Bravin
* * *
Majority Rules: As three Republicans candidates vie to replace Rep. Tom DeLay as House Majority Whip in an election Thursday, Democrats showed that anything can happen in a closed-ballot election in Washington.
Democrat Rep. John Larson of Connecticut won a startling election to become the fourth-ranking member of the House Democrats' leadership team.
Larson had just 18 publicly announced supporters heading into the election. Rep. Joseph Crowley of New York had 72 public supporters while Rep. Jan Schakowsky had 56. In the first round of voting, Mr. Larson received 60 votes; Crowley, 79; and Ms. Schakowsky, 56. Since no candidate won a majority of the votes, the top two vote recipients -- Mr. Larson and Mr. Crowley -- moved on to a second ballot. There, most of Ms. Schakowsky's supporters backed Mr. Larson -- and he won, 116-87.
On Thursday, House Republicans will chose among Rep. Roy Blunt of Missouri, Rep. John Boehner of Ohio and Rep. John Shadegg of Arizona to serve as House majority leader. Blunt, who now serves as interim majority leader, is considered the frontrunner with 94 public supporters. Boehner has just 55 public backers, and Shadegg just a few dozen. If Mr. Blunt doesn't win a majority -- 117 votes -- on the first ballot, he will face either Boehner or Shadegg on the second ballot. --Brody Mullins
* * *
[gadgets]
Caught on BlackBerry: The House will take its first steps on lobbying reform Wednesday, voting to no longer allow former lawmakers who have become registered lobbyists to use the House gym and enter the House floor. That could make former Rep. Jim Greenwood (R., Pa.), who was on the House floor Tuesday night listening to President Bush's State of the Union address, the last former member to use that privilege. Greenwood left Congress a year ago to take over the Washington lobby for the biotechnology industry, the Biotechnology Industry Organization. House rules prohibit former lawmakers from lobbying Congress for one year after leaving Capitol Hill. A spokesman for Greenwood said his visit yesterday was his first appearance on Capitol Hill since he left Congress a little more than a year ago.
Former Rep. Joe Scarborough (R., Fla.), now a television commentator, was also on the House floor Tuesday night. He spent much of the first half of the speech standing in the back of the chamber sending emails on his BlackBerry. House rules prohibit the use of cell phones and BlackBerries in the chamber. -- Brody Mullins
* * *
Call for Action: A new Zogby Interactive survey shows that 64% of poll respondents favor joint U.S.-European military intervention to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, and 63% favor joint military action with the United Nations to stop Iran's nuclear program. Another 47% would support unilateral military action by the U.S. against Iran. Among those respondents who said they supported U.S. military action against Iran to halt their nuclear program, 74% of that subset said they would favor joint air strikes with European allies. The interactive survey of 13,456 likely voters nationwide was conducted Jan. 27 through 30. It has a margin of error of +/- 0.9 percentage points.
• See a graphic on world nuclear powers4, FAQ on the crisis5, text of the draft resolution6 submitted by European nations, and a timeline of Iran's nuclear ambitions7. |
