Mike "...With i), when do you expect real broadband roll out (I guess I am in the roll out doubters thinking it is still 2-3 years away)."
you know there are three basic "broadband" rollouts occurring; a) optical, b) wireless, and c) xDSL. all three are principally dependent on the transfer from switched base to packet based data. you can have an xDSL in your box and be connected to a slow switched based network and still be non-broadband compliant (weak link). operators' justification for transfering assets from switch to packet must be revenue compliant, or they must witness a clear market signal that demand is there and customers are willling to pay.
Japan is a test market. it is interesting that in Japan, with each step, when limited broadband services were introduced, the "limited" services, with each added increment, were nearly immediately maxed out. so, for them, it is not a question of "shall we" relative to justification but "when?"
Japan is at least one year ahead of the U.S. in broadband application and buildout (strangely enough, Europe also leads). don't you think we in the U.S. tend toward myopic vision relative to broadband since it has garnered limited application here (mainly in the fixed LMDS/MMDS arena)?
UK operators just spent nearly $30 billion for 3g spectrum. I'd say their serious about buildout. Their timeframe is one to two years. Finland, with NOK, is 6 to 8 months. NOK believes it's cheaper per user for broadband on a wireless scale than it is on a, say, WDM (wave division mulitplexing - optical pipe or cable) scale. Gilder abundantly favors the JDSU approach, but one wonders if that isn't a more "U.S. centric" thinking approach?
a big issue for NOK and others is the battery (non-lithium) for the 3g handsets and/or laptops that are capable of handling the increased power consumption needs (significantly increased needs). there are a few smaller players in the running with big hopes and claims including Manhattan Scientific (MHTX) and Valence (VLNC).
Other than these small players, I'd be interested in knowing if you or anyone else have ideas on this latter subject.
As for Europe..."Europe is in trouble (businesses run by root-bound bureaucrats with protectionist labor unions in tow) with slow PC growth being a symptom of their slow embrace of technology..."
I think there's the "new Europe" and the "old Europe", two dichotomous worlds. New Europe, with the intro of the mobile phone and the Euro, has well embraced change and consists mainly of the younger people, younger companies. Characterizing all of Europe as "slow to adapt" wouldn't be fully correct since they're still at least one year ahead of the U.S. in mobile phone adapatation and technology; including wireless broadband and data.
In the U.S. we still have nearly 25% of mobile phone applicants denied due to poor credit history (don't ask me why it is so high - ask the stauch credit requirements - cost of the phone, etc.). In Europe they've partially solved this problem by allocating minutes per phone - prepaid - no monthly bills - pay as you go - but it's still switched based. They want to move to packet based (minutes built into the phone or downloaded to the phone automatically).
It's funny here, though, that a small U.S. company, called PrePaid Systems out of Mankato, Minnesota developed a packet based prepaid mobile phone card system in 1995 - the patent of which was approved in November of last year. Now Nokia, Ericsson, several U.S. (one specifically in Boston who is publically traded is pushing the company's technology) and Asian players are courting the company (they did a test run in Mankato, apparently, with Hickory Tech's Cellular One (HTCO) and Cellular One was very impressed by the results). The Euros are all trying to keep it hush (the CEO is Finnish) until they get the best offer for phone builds - ge, now we all know. The company is not publically traded yet; but one to watch
- so, now the U.S. invents the mobile phone technology and the Japanese and Euros generally deploy it first - including the adapation of mobile technology to the PC box. it's rather disgusting.
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