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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum
GLD 368.29+0.6%Nov 7 4:00 PM EST
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To: arun gera who wrote (156714)4/19/2020 6:22:01 PM
From: Maurice Winn   of 217576
 
The words "mortality rate" need definition. I guess you mean the percentage of the total population. I was using the words to mean the percentage of those infected = 4%. Those are two very different things.

Using the same words to mean two different things makes discussion pointless.

Mortality rate is likely to be between 0.1 and 0.5 %. New York state has already reached 0.1% in one month. Anywhere between 10% and 30% have probably been infected already in the NY city area. Recent data from mothers being admitted a hospital in NY city area showed infections in the 10-15% range.

I like actual data rather than guesses based on wishful thinking such as 30% probably already infected. Dead people are easy to count though death causes are not accurately reported in some cases.

Infected are fairly easily defined too by testing.

Guessing how many people are infected but undetected is very inaccurate. Many of the so-called asymptomatic are actually just early in the illness. A week or 2 later they are begging for mercy or dead.

So far, around the world, the mortality rate of those confirmed as infected is about 10%. But guessing that half of infections were not identified leads me to my 5%.

Because people will take measures to protect themselves when enough people are dead, the total number of infected people will be about half the population.

Some countries such as India will have low mortality rates due to age, immune system strength, climate etc while others such as Italy have twice or thrice the mortality rate. Median age Italy is 44 while India is about 26.

Mqurice
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