2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

GLD 387.24

-0.6%

Dec 2 4:00 PM EST

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (156791)	4/20/2020 12:15:34 PM
From: sense	2 Recommendations Recommended By marcher Secret_Agent_Man Read Replies (2) of 218151

Most noteworthy in that article... The first graphic "Exhibit 2" purports to show "collapse in global oil demand"... But, what it depicts is not just a drop in demand, but also a V shaped recovery... with the nadir in demand occurring in April. Today is April 20th... and the spot price collapse today is based on the MAY contract becoming deliverable tomorrow. People are selling contracts on May oil for $10 and change today, to avoid having to take delivery... The performance in ETFs like SCO... is vastly reduced relative to the rout in the spot price only because they've rolled to the June contract which is still trading at $22... But, is there anything about what we see happening now in the global economy... which suggests that normalcy is going to be restored in a V shaped recovery starting in April ? The resolution of the price difference in oil, between June at $22 and the spot price at $10 today... will depend on how the difference is resolved in the rate at which the surplus that is building continues moving toward exceeding storage capacity... and how much demand resumes as quarantines begin being lifted, which will relieve some of the excess capacity with increased consumption... depending on the robustness of the resumption of activity. I think we're going to find out soon... how much damage has been done to the economy by the Congress failing to fund the same level of "support" for small business that they have for their corporate overlords. Congress is still delaying... already having doubled the numbers of small businesses that will fail... So, the rebound may not be what some expect it must be... given dead cats don't really bounce much.

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