Issue, are any of the airlines going to go bankrupt or all get bailed out?
Airlines are always going broke, any time there's a burble in the economy. The business is crazy for the nature of the debt, necessary to buy expensive new airplanes... and with thin margins there's often enough a tendency to business failure driven by unexpected wobbles in fuel prices, given the massive component in the fuel costs. Bankruptcy doesn't kill them... and in the degree it makes them stronger, it seems the effect is short-lived.
But, of course, right now, they're not flying.... not spending on fuel... and not paying on the debts.
Maybe that makes them the perfect instance to consider... because, for once, in the current environment, every business is an airline.
Current events are so far outside the set of expectations everyone's been operating under... that there's no obvious advantage I can see derived from one management being better prepared for hard times than another. Worth finding exceptions, perhaps, if there are such.
So, however the events work out... everyone goes BK, everyone gets bailed out, or some combination of things happens... and we press on.
I don't see that clear a path being pointed out, in that above, showing how investors should be able to parse the risks to make better decisions in the current context...
The receding tide has stranded all boats. From that, hard to tell what happens when (or, perhaps, if ?) the tide comes back in. Perhaps much (or all) depends mostly on the the nature of that tide... the eddies and swirls that landforms impose ?
I don't see much to consider as a source of advantage ? Sure, if one government bails out airlines and another doesn't you will see a shift in the composition of the market...
But, until we see that play out ?
There's an oddity in the reality that businesses ARE going to under-perform... they will not make their quarterly goals... but, that's likely to be true of all of them, on more or less the same terms...
So, relatively... the debacle seems it has impact that is not overly selective ?
The individual circumstances of one company versus another... might matter a lot more given the variations in stresses... but still pretty hard to see how, exactly, just now ?
It would make sense, then, to see change dysfunction ?
Valuation... relative to what ?
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