Overly optimistic on the virus front.
Yours intrinsically includes an assumption about the nature of the infectiousness of the new virus... which I think is in error. So, when you say breathing protection plus avoidance behaviors are enough to end transmission... is that true ? How do you answer that question definitively, rather than going with your guess, or the alternative in my guess ?
I'll assert that science has had time to deliver more meaningful opinions on the NATURE of the transmissibility... We've seen some of that in the ACE2 issues... a bit more with the recent news on alternative paths of infection, that include infecting T Cells that don't even have ACE2 sites...
The virulence factor... includes calculation of the mode of transmission... if spread in droplets, you get one limit... if it is spread as an aerosol, you get another. Science has demonstrated it is an aerosol threat... yet nothing I see has been adjusted to account for that new information.
Why is the system incapable of absorbing and responding to new information ?
If the system is sick... you should not trust its judgment... as clearly we should not have trusted the WHO or the CDC... even to do the basic math right...
As far as 4% overall mortality rate being "not too bad"...
You have to stop smoking that stuff.
Otherwise, the same logic applies in "economic resurgence"... Agree with you on UNLESS governments do more dumb things... while seeing no reason in yours to assume they will not... when we see ample proofs already that they are thoroughly relishing their big moment on center stage... and are more than willing to sustain that as much and as long as possible, others expense.
In consequence, there is a struggle over the influence government will exercise... that is not yet fully resolved. However, the Congress has (in my estimation, but also meaning Democrats in Congress have) already DOUBLED unemployment in the U.S. by refusing to timely address small business concerns... while lavishing attention and money on larger corporations... Republicans don't get a pass... even if only as their innate incompetence in politics ensured that they allowed it to occur.
The timing and scope of any resurgence are thus tough to judge... when you have one side working against positive outcomes...
I doubt "oil users will do well"... only because the market clearly is efficient enough to ensure there is no competitive advantage available or allowed due only to basic materials costs. Your cheap airline tickets... that have you flying empty seats around the world cheaper than ever... won't cover the financing cost of the jets... but you can't charge more to cover costs... if competitors won''t ? So, in the end, whatever the fuel or labor cost issues are, the airline business is only about the patience and resiliency of the lenders...
Same in gold ? The cost of mining is getting less... so there will be more gold coming to market ?
Timing disconnects matter. I've noted that already... that innovators who get back to work better / faster will bury competitors who wait to be told what to do... |
