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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent?
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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (1569)10/14/1998 12:31:00 PM
From: sea_urchin   of 81280
 
George : From my own regression models, two scenarios are possible.

In the multiple regression against time, currencies, POG etc, the US market would seem to at, or very close to its, present bottom. This is last month, before the dollar devaluation/yen revaluation. For this reason the whole picture could have changed.

In the regression against time only (standard linear regression) a significant downside is still ahead = -30% on the Dow and -10% on the Trannies. I mention that they don't have to do this fall in one smack -- in fact, by "drifting along with the tumbling tumbleweeds" for a few years, because the long-term, trend rate is 12% pa, they can reach the "bottom without falling" --- because the bottom is rising! I trust you can understand that bit of "Alice in Wonderland"!
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