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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT)
ADPT 18.62+14.1%Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: gda who wrote (1573)4/3/1998 12:23:00 PM
From: slob   of 5944
 
Mark and gda, Net Present Value of future "free" cash flow, is the valuation method most commonly used by fund managers to value High Tech companies.

This method takes into account growth, earnings acceleration and liquidity driven dilution effects, unfortunately it is very difficult to calculate.

If we look at the levers effecting future cash flow we get the best picture of a stock's price direction.

Strongest Levers
Growth :
Symbios's extra engineers will enable product portfolio growth
resulting in extra revenue growth in 2000

Gross Margin :
ADPT's margin is under pressure at systems level (1394 and EIDE)
Symboios will enable ADPT to control SCSI pricing

Cost Containment :
Symbios's fab will be a real mill stone for ADPT
Economies of scale will be difficult to realize in short term

These are the main factors that I see

Slob






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