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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 306.28

-1.0%

Dec 4 4:00 PM EST

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To: michael97123 who wrote (15820)	6/18/2004 12:23:09 PM
From: Return to Sender	of 95525

From Briefing.com: 10:58AM Sector Watch: Semi Index -SOX- on the mend : -- Technical -- The lagging group has put together a solid performance today (SOX 460.42, +1.5%) with the earnings/guidance/upgrade on SLR (+9%) and bargain hunting/rotation out of some recently leading energy stocks underpinning. From a chart perspective the SOX held in the vicinity of its late Oct low and quickly rebounded back above a long term trendline (Oct 2002/Feb 2003) which held on two occasions in May. Short term resistance for the index is at early month lows (461 and 463) followed by 465 and 467/468 (session high 460.85). finance.yahoo.com Mike, I don't have a target trough price based on fundamental values like Cary Salsberg for AMAT which is 2 x's book. This obviously is not a trough. It may well be a point in time soon enough that the market can mount a successful rally although I doubt it. All I have been trying to say is that objectively measured sentiment like the sentiment that can be seen on volatility indices and the Investor's Intelligence poll is nothing like it was in October of 1998. If we had sentiment like that now then yes I believe the SOX and AMAT would be much lower. Is sentiment going to get that bearish? How do I know for sure? It will happen at some point in time. When we do have 1998 sentiment that is so bearish as it was in October of 1998, or October of 2002, then it will be a great time to buy stocks in this sector for the long haul in my humble opinion. RtS

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