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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated
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To: DMaA who wrote (15862)11/11/2003 9:40:46 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) of 793754
 
TNR on the Dem Race

But since Dean was already the front-runner before the SEIU and AFSCME endorsements, the practical effect of those endorsements will be to transform him from de facto front-runner to prohibitive favorite. And what having a prohibitive favorite does is create a situation in which no other candidate can beat Dean outright. Instead, they have to try to win what's essentially a race for second place, which would get them into a two-man race for the nomination, which they might then have some hope of winning. (Lieberman adviser Mandy Grunwald put it best when she told the Post that "Dean has his ticket to the playoffs; this only confirms it more.... Who is going to be there with him is more wide open than it was two or three months ago.")

But if the only race that matters for the moment is the race for second place--i.e., just making the playoffs--why on earth would you waste your time attacking the guy who's in first? The only front-runner any candidate should now care about is the guy who's the front-runner in the race for second. Which means the attacks on Dean should start to diminish. Instead, you should start seeing candidates touting their own inside track on the second place spot--and attacking their biggest rivals in that narrower competition.

And, in fact, that's exactly what's starting to happen. Just about all the candidates and their advisers now buy into the two-team playoff scenario. Many go even further. Clark adviser Chris Lehane implicitly dissed fellow Southerner John Edwards when he told the Times, "The events of the week increased the likelihood that it will be a one-on-one matchup [between Howard Dean and] Wesley K. Clark when we get to the South." Gephardt adviser Steve Elmendorf did him one better, telling the Post that potential Gephardt rival John Kerry is essentially toast: "It's very hard to see what John Kerry does in New Hampshire to get past Howard Dean ... I don't see what issues he could use to get past Dean's lead."

Assuming Dean does get the SEIU and AFSCME endorsements, the next several weeks should only bring more of the same.

tnr.com
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