GOP Warns of Impact on Voter Turnout
Tue Jul 23, 2:24 AM ET
By DAVID ESPO, AP Special Correspondent
WASHINGTON (AP) - Corporate wrongdoing and economic jitters have soured the national mood noticeably in recent weeks, according to prominent Republican pollsters who warn of "GOP turnout problems" in midterm elections if the trend persists.
"The bottom has fallen out on the mood of the country," Public Opinion Strategies cautioned party strategists in and out of Congress in recent days.
Based on soundings taken recently in Georgia, the pollsters concluded that "WorldCom's announcement may have been the straw the broke the camel's back," a reference to the major telecommunications company's disclosure last month that it had erroneously accounted for nearly $4 billion in expenses.
Democrats must gain seven seats this fall to be assured of a majority in the House. Republicans need to gain one seat to return the Senate to a 50-50 tie that gives them control on the strength of Vice President Dick Cheney ( news - web sites)'s tie-breaking vote.
Republicans and Democrats alike have scrambled for political gain in the wake of WorldCom's announcement, and the polling report urged the GOP to be aggressive in doing so.
"The issue agenda seems tilted slightly toward the Democrats as our party struggles to right the economy and get a handle on the corporate corruption issue. Voters attitudes toward corporate offenders are hostile. Legislation punishing wrongdoers can't be too tough," Public Opinion said in a report obtained by The Associated Press.
It advised Republicans: "Get out in front of this issue now. Don't wait for the Democrats to tee off on you."
Public Opinion Strategies, which has dozens of Republican political clients, noted that GOP congressional candidates are continuing to run even with Democrats in hypothetical matchups for the fall.
At the same time, polling shows that the percentage of Americans who believe the country has moved off in the wrong direction is at 52 percent, up from 39 percent as recently as May. The percentage of people who said the country is moving in the right direction was pegged at 37 percent, down from 50 percent in May. At the same time, President Bush ( news - web sites)'s approval ratings have slipped.
"If the negative mood of the country is sustained over the next few months, look for GOP turnout problems," the pollsters cautioned. 'Wrong track' voters always turn out at higher rates than those believing the country is headed in the right direction."
Republicans were cautioned that senior citizens, who often vote in disproportionately large numbers in midterm elections, also show increasing concern about the direction of the country.
And among female voters who swing between the parties, the economy was not the only issue, the report said. "Of the dozens of issues we tested among swing women voters, getting tough on HMOs and prescription drugs for vulnerable seniors top the list."
Democrats have attacked Republicans vigorously in recent weeks on the issue of corporate scandals, attempting to depict the GOP as captive to special interests.
For their part, Senate Republicans responded by swinging behind a series of tough new penalties for corporate wrongdoers, and helping pass legislation 97-0.
In the House, GOP leaders moved swiftly to bring their own bill to the floor for a vote to toughen some penalties even further.
House and Senate negotiators met last Friday to begin work on a final compromise measure to crack down on corporate fraud, and prevent future abuses. Several sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said no significant progress was made over the weekend, with key lawmakers out of town.
House Republicans, who pushed through corporate abuse legislation last spring — before the WorldCom announcement — appear to have little leverage in their negotiations with the Senate.
Several GOP lawmakers circulated a letter signed by several dozen members of the rank-and-file to Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., urging him to skip the negotiations and allow a vote on the Senate-passed measure. That bill is deemed tougher — even by many Republicans — on most points than legislation the House approved in April
Hastert declined, but lawmakers involved in seeking signatures on the letter said during the day they believe he may yet grant their wish if there is no compromise with the Senate by week's end.
"The speaker hasn't said as much to me but everyone I've talked to on this issue has assured me there will be a vote by Friday," said Rep. Mark Foley ( news, bio, voting record), R-Fla.
Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich., added, "I feel very, very confident" that GOP leaders will put strong legislation on the House floor by week's end, when lawmakers are scheduled to begin a monthlong summer break. "I received some strong commitments," he added.
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