Biotech Valuation Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 57.37

+0.9%

Dec 8 3:59 PM EST

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To: Biomaven who wrote (15841)	3/6/2005 1:10:39 PM
From: CapitalistHogg™	Read Replies (3) of 52153

I really don't know if there's any good way to handicap this Targretin trial. It would take me many years (if ever?) to become as proficient as you at analyzing the science of biotech. That being said I do know a thing or two about options and binary events. LGND is definitely showing up as a binary event and most likely involves the phase III approval of Targretin. Take a look at the option volume last Friday. Almost 40 thousand contracts were traded primarily on the May 12.50 and May 17.5 calls. To me this indicates a bull call spread and shows heavy optimism for approval by somebody big. And while their are no "bargains to be had" I think that an unhedged wager on the stock would definitely have a good Risk/Reward profile. I would appreciate any thoughts you had on this Peter. TIA Bighogg

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