tom--
to be quite honest, MU has had better designers in the past, and they may still have them, even though TL is gone. i know this may not sit well with many bears on MU, but it is the truth. their manufacturing and process technology is normally state of the art. they got a little sidetracked last year, but they appear to be doing better now.
now, if they had gotten everything straight last summer, the company would be in excellent shape now. however, their transition and cap spending program is very late in the game. the move to 12" wafers would help a lot, since they have probably just about maxxed out the die shrinks they can do on their current process line. this move may be the straw that breaks the camel back.
now, if they can transition to 256Mb parts durinbg next fall, that would be a tremendous buy signal. they would have a jump on competitors. then they woudl need to crush the asians by dropping the price really low, so that 64Mb chips are not cost effective anymore. this is really long range stuff, and i dont know if MU has thought about it, but if they have then they deserve a second look.
however, until they show any of this, the stock needs to float down to 20 on earnings. over the next three months, shorts and put holders will do well.
good luck to all,
trey |
