Mobile World Congress: 10 themes that couldn't be ignored
So another Mobile World Congress in Barcelona came to an end, and behind the usual politics and razzmatazz (subdued but by no means killed by the downturn), some key events and themes unfolded.
In general, it was a quieter show than usual, but to a far lesser degree than many had expected, and most agreed that visitor numbers held up well, even if people came for less time. Operators, vendors and industry bodies steered clear of predicting recovery too tightly, and tried instead to look for the opportunities that could arise from the economic crisis (stimulus plans, the cost efficiency of wireless broadband versus wireline, the chance for bargain acquisitions for those lucky enough to have cash).
And the overall theme was how to enhance the value of existing technology investments in order to meet a rising tide of demand for broadband and mobile services, that the recession is unlikely to stifle significantly, as long as providers can get their propositions right - making HSPA+, optimized versions of popular web applications, low cost netbooks and all-IP some of the hottest topics. Here we present a brief round-up of the major themes of the show, many of which will continue to unfold throughout the year ahead.
NETWORKS
The key words were 'reality check'. What had promised to be LTE's show in fact became an event focused on extending the efficiency of existing networks (through new spectrum allocations, hotly demanded by nearly everybody; through to new antenna approaches); and extending the life of the 3G families for cellcos. HSPA+ took center stage in terms of emerging networks, and even the EV-DO roadmap got more of a look-in than usual, despite Verizon's high profile announcement of its LTE suppliers (one of the least surprising news items of the show - CDMA incumbent Alcatel-Lucent and market leader Ericsson).
In fact, Verizon was left looking rather isolated in its eagerness for LTE, with co-parent Vodafone - in common with most Europe-based majors - pushing back any serious deployments until around 2012. China Mobile banged the drum too, especially in terms of demanding support, from day one, for TDD and FDD modes of LTE in devices, in order to speed harmonization with China's TDD-based systems.
Ironically, the clear acceptance that LTE is a star of the future, not 2009-2010, pushed WiMAX somewhat out of its customary MWC shadows, especially in regards to broadband models that are not dominated by 3G. Emerging market providers; wireline operators in all territories; and businesses in vertical markets or newer areas like machine-to-machine, all require more broadband too, and with no history in 3G they are looking to WiMAX as a technology that is available now, and where there is often available spectrum.
CHIPS
The device silicon market changed forever when Nokia finally agreed to buy chips from Qualcomm - only for north American phones at first, with a clear eye on the Verizon LTE opportunity - but a major step towards the two giants of their respective fields cooperating more broadly. This, and the extension of Nokia's agreement with Broadcom to cover 3G as well as EDGE, means the Finnish company now has a three-pronged HSPA supply base, with ST Ericsson apparently mainly focused on the high end, Qualcomm on the US, and Broadcom on emerging markets 3G and lower cost platforms (and there may still be some customized basebands from TI too).
Other chip highlights included TI's announcement of its OMAP4 application processor and Qualcomm's Gobi2 embedded notebook chipset and first femtocell product. In contrast to the equipment vendors, the chipmakers were talking up LTE. We counted 20 firms claiming to have an LTE device silicon roadmap geared to 2010-2012 - a number that the technology surely will not support, given the strength of the big two.
HANDSETS
The biggest difference between the 2009 show and previous events was the relative dearth of glitzy handset launches. Android supporters like Samsung and Sony Ericsson backed away, one by one, from launching an actual device at the show, though they talked about their plans, leaving HTC still the only mainstream phonemaker with products based on the Google system. It unveiled its second Android offering, Magic, with Vodafone as the exclusive partner - an important indication of the cellcos' interest in using Linux-based platforms as a way to increase their control of mobile web branding. The rival LiMo platform fielded two launches, both for Japan (NEC and Panasonic).
Outside Linux, the stand-out superphone launch came from LG with its Arena, complete with Apple-trumping 3D user interface. Most of the launches were updates of existing families - HTC had new Windows Touch models, Samsung the Omnia HD and Beat, Sony Ericsson an impressive new Walkman, while Nokia's star turn was its new E75 Qwerty model.
WEB SERVICES
The most important themes emerged on the software side, highlighting the trends for operators and vendors to seek to optimize and control the mobile web experience - using tight integration of apps with devices, and their own widget platforms and software stores. Nokia, Microsoft and Samsung opened stores as expected, while Android Market admitted paid-for apps. The carriers and phonemakers are increasingly forming uneasy alliances - despite the potential conflict of interests between their respective bids to be the dominant web brands. These may often serve to prevent the 'open' internet players, like Google, making their own products and business models too dominant in the value chain. So 3 and Sony Ericsson joined forces on an optimized Facebook phone; T-Mobile unveiled its own widgets environment, echoing Vodafone's recent moves, but also allowed this to coexist on certain phones with Nokia's Ovi services and store.
OTHER THEMES
The other most important signals of the future shape of the mobile world, in our opinion, were:
The increasing nonchalance about supporting large numbers of radios and frequencies in one low power device
The breakdown of the traditional homogeneous supply chain in the network market, with one supplier providing everything from core to backhaul to RAN, and the move to a more open model, partly sparked by RAN price wars
The rapid acceptance that femtocells are real and will be an important part of the future network in all technologies, because of their economics and their support for new models
The huge need for more and more new spectrum - combined with the chilling knowledge, for cellcos, that much of this will be open; plus the concerted lobbying for wireless to gain a hefty portion of stimulus plans round the world
The determination of operators to reduce fragmentation and take control of standards - preaching open ecosystems, but in many cases, looking to erect a new set of garden walls on top of standard platforms
The expectation of further consolidation, with a wave of acquisitions and the strong emerging from the downturn stronger than ever, though perhaps, as with Nokia and Qualcomm, more dependent on one another
Published : 21/02/2009 |
