How high will Microsoft fly? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?

MSFT 492.01

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Nov 28 9:30 AM EST

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To: DownSouth who wrote (16011)	2/15/1999 1:58:00 AM
From: Brian Malloy	Read Replies (1) of 74651

Perhaps you have taken this Gorilla Game Thing to an extreme - and yes I have read the Gorilla Game when it first came out and have reviewed it from time to time. You write: "Any company with the will, the resources, and the smarts can cut into Dell's position in a few months." Do you see any hyperbole in your statement? a few months. I suppose DELL is just going to stand flat footed and allow the world to pass them by. They will stop innovating, changing and adapting? Evidently you have forgotten CPQ's ill fated price war with DELL in '93 and Mike DELL going on to perfect his model. CPQ, HP and IBM have known about DELL and its model for six years and they are still not appreciably better at matching up supply and demand. The inability of these companies and now their Hybrid efforts at direct order only serve to illustrate DELL's strength. If they could over take DELL in a few months don't you think they would have done it. Perhaps it may be more accurate to say that they can not do it? Moore's "The Gorilla Game" is a good book that can help people prioritize the way they approach and select tech stocks. However, it is a system, a good system but can it account for every contingency all eventualities - I don't think so. If a new book comes out two years from now that makes more sense to you than Moore's work does now will you be off on a new stock hunt du jour? Perhaps you would be better off reading some of the work of W. Brian Arthur on Increasing Returns and using those insights to select stocks. Of course you will have to adapt the work and pick your own stocks but at least you will not limit your parameters to someone elses found in a single book. "Any company with the will, the resources, and the smarts can cut into Dell's position in a few months." According to your reading of Moore which company would this be?

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