Hi Staff,
I think Gann was truly the only one who was able to peg the markets as well as he did. I use Gann to time the DOW and bonds and have been successful over the years. I use his time corrections as well as price corrections, Gann lines, and I also use median lines which have been very reliable in picking market turns for the DOW and bond markets. I bought the bonds a few months ago right off a median line. And the DOW rallied off a median line a couple of weeks ago. Those lines are obvious when you know how to calculate them, and if you're interested I'll gladly show you how, to make my point. It's easy to do.
Now, as far as your coin flipping puzzle is concerned, that is a very different species of mathematics. Of course, the next flip is always 50/50. If you flipped the coin 10 times and landed on heads 8 out of ten, the hidden question is what is the probability of getting 9 heads out of 11 flips. That would not be 50/50, but exponential. Two separate questions and mathematical problems.
The reason the coin question is a different species of question than those about the markets is because the coin flip is not influenced by human emotion and mob psychology. These markets are driven by the masses' perception of what supply and demand is. Fear and greed are the emotions that drive and distort those perceptions. This is what is being measured on the charts. These factors have little to do with the flip of a coin. Mob psychology and mass behavior is quantifiable and, therefore, predictable. With the use of Gann's time lines and median lines, a market trader has the clear advantage of knowing in advance when the market has the greatest opportunity for a turn in sentiment.
Have a great weekend.
GZ |
