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Technology Stocks : Vantive Corporation
VNTV 77.60+2.6%Jan 12 4:00 PM EST

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To: Trader Dave who wrote (1602)2/27/1998 3:08:00 PM
From: Kevin Rose  Read Replies (2) of 3033
 
Hi TD:
Can't comment on any rumors; I always get beat up when I do.

My (probably naive) opinion on 'pure' SFA is this: this industry is still in the chasm. Tom is trying to convince people it is nearing the tornado, if not already inside. But look at the number of customers and the installed base. My memory of SEBL numbers is something like <100 customers and around 17,000 installed seats. This is the tornado? Hell, our top 5 customers account for that many users; I'm sure its the same for VNTV/SCOP. But give Tom credit; making a chasm look like a tornado is powerful magic.

SEBL cannot survive without moving into the much more established segment of CIS: service. When the early adopters dry up in pure SFA, they will need to grab HUGE market share in service to survive. That will be mucho tough, considering the investment needed in functionality, performance, and reliability.

I question VNTV's strategy of marching out to meet them on the SFA turf. Ever play cutthroat basketball (1 on 1 on 1)? SEBL's got the ball, and VNTV is guarding them close. Meanwhile, we're under the basket ready to rebound the brick...God, I hate sports analogies. But the point is; if you really believe that the crux of CIS is service (course we will get some argument, but apparently not from Tom), why would VNTV commit the lion's share (if not of resources at least of mind share) to a melee with SEBL over SFA? Hey, I'm not complaining; its good for us.

Still a lot more fun before the fat lady sings (if ever). Hey, is that another sports analogy?

Good luck.
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