Planning for a peaceful world: An interview with Thomas Barnett
Steve Martinovich at "Enter Stage Right" does a "twenty questions" interview with Tom. Some exchanges.
ESR: Much attention has been focused on the Middle East in recent years but essentially an entire continent -- namely Africa -- is disconnected from the world. Which nut would you try and crack first and why?
You get to Africa one of two fear-based ways, and let's start there because, deep down, we're practical on the subject, okay?
First pathway is that you prosecute the Global War on Terror (GWOT) aggressively in the Middle East, with the goal being you squeeze that balloon so it expands southward, and not to the north (Central Asia). You want the Salafi jihadists to retreat into sub-Saharan Africa for their last stand. And so you follow them down and that's pathway number one, which is a depressing tale to some, who want victory fast in the GWOT and don't want to be told that success doesn't mean less violence, but its geographic shift.
Second pathway is that we get all jacked up about China's "penetration" of the continent, believing it represents some zero-sum access outcome on raw materials, which inevitably will be described as "critical," lest we miss the chance to describe China's "threat" in its full glory. ....... We have the tendency to assume it's all going to be about turning the Gap into a carbon copy of the U.S., because it's never gonna happen. It'll be about turning the Gap into a knock-off of China, India, Brazil. One-Sigmas solutions instead of Six-Sigma. But One-Sigma is a big step forward for most of these situations. Walk before you run. Keep it realistic. It's all about direction, not degree of positive change.
ESR: You argue that radical Islam isn't fighting the West so much as its fighting globalization, attempting a civilizational apartheid. Could the war against terrorism derail the globalization process as World War I destroyed it before?
Yes, but it won't be bin Laden's doing if it happens. It'll be because the big players screw up the most important things, which are our relationships with one another.
The Salafi jihadist response to globalization's creeping embrace of the Middle East is just the current struggle against the historical expansion of capitalist "global" markets. In that long-term process, securing the growing Core is more important than the tactics of the so-called Long War. So, in my mind, allying with China is the best proactive strategic choice we make right now, because what creates strategic despair on al Qaeda's side is the growing realization that a divide-and-delay strategy is pointless: we and China choose each other before events conspire to make us choose to balance one another..........Read the rest here
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