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Technology Stocks : Vantive Corporation

VNTV 77.60

+2.6%

Jan 12 4:00 PM EST

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To: Kevin Rose who wrote (1603)	2/27/1998 9:34:00 PM
From: Bobo	of 3033

Great thread recently, one of the most intellectually interesting ones on SI. Regarding the following comment: My (probably naive) opinion on 'pure' SFA is this: this industry is still in the chasm. Tom is trying to convince people it is nearing the tornado, if not already inside. Siebel would not be sustaining this kind of growth and success in multiple verticals without a tornado. It takes a company like Siebel to be a leader, thereby establishing credibility to the space for potential customers. Without this leader, the space becomes fragmented. Now the decision becomes "should I go with Siebel because it's the leader or one of the others because it better suits my business." Just look at some technology segments that remain fragmented and never took off because they lack a gorilla. High-end client server tools and operational support systems for telco companies are two that I can think of. With both of these, the market demand seemed to be huge. But no company could execute successfully enough to become big quickly. I am not saying this is the only reason certain technology areas do not take off, but it seems to be the biggest beyond demand. Everyone seems to agree that SFA is high risk and not necessarily a good fit with the sales culture. Regardless of this, Siebel found the formula to convince businesses that they really need this stuff to be competitive. I will wager that Siebel carries much of its success into the support space simply because of its momentum. I agree that they will have to absorb a lower $/seat for support but do not think it will be noticeable from a financial perspective. It is amazing how Siebel keeps it up. I sold out about $25 ago and felt good with 100% gain. I often wonder about the agressiveness of their accounting policies. But I don't think a CFO would make that mistake in two companies. I guess as a non-stockholder it would interesting to watch the house of cards fall if it came to that.

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