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Strategies & Market Trends : Natural Resource Stocks

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To: yard_man who wrote (1607)10/8/2003 9:50:52 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (1) of 108706
 
the USD decline from 120 to 91 so far is NOTHING
it has been a transfer to Europe of a high currency

most lending comes from mortgages, which surely hedge
but their hedging has convexity risk on the REFI side
which will gaurantee Fanny's destruction

the wild card is Asian currencies
just today an economist on CNBC said multinationals will benefit greatly
he believes we have big benefits from a falling yen
"the benefit is going to pack a wallop" he said
he cited Japan as having twice the foreign subsidiary revenues for US firms as France and Germany combined
that is all well and good
but these hack economists have a blind eye
they ignore the back door price inflation issue completely
they point like morons to the multinationals
and completely miss the Asian import pricing system

we are set next year to have price inflation with no profit margins
we are well along the greatest inflationary period since the Federal Reserve was created
I refer to money supply and the Monetary Futility Index
it takes $6.5 new money to generate $1 new GDP
early last year that figure was $5.0
it will get to $10 in a couple years
for 20 years, that ratio was stuck at $1.4 to $1.6

whatever GreenScrotum harps about, he has backwards
now he harps on price deflation
we have PRICE INFLATION all around us
e.g. stock market, trez bond market, mortgage bonds, real estate, service costs, commodities, energy
he calls them bull markets
I see them as clear evidence of inflation and rising production costs

with China constantly present, we will have no pricing power
thus no profit margins

eventually we will see an inflation risk premium priced into bonds of all kinds
that is when the music stops and the chairs are pursued

/ jim
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