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Technology Stocks : Vantive Corporation

VNTV 77.60

+2.6%

Jan 12 4:00 PM EST

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To: investorgal who wrote (1607)	3/1/1998 12:43:00 PM
From: Trader Dave	of 3033

Siebel won't be a great short there's an indication of an earnings disappointment or a slow down in underlying growth. If you have contacts in the real world that indicate: Longer sales cycles due to increased competition Lower selling prices from increased competition significant sales force departures from the cult those would be good signals. However, Siebel claims to have a massive "soft" backlog of seats yet to be deployed which supposedly creates a high degree of future visibility. With analysts claiming that this will be the next peoplesoft, it'll be a tough short. Can you anticipate an earnings disappointment or slowdown before most of the analysts and institutional investors? If so, then it could be a fundamental short. Often, lofty valuations can be sustained for a VERY long time -- combined with high growth you can grow your way out of a lofty valuation with stagnation, not decline. TD

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