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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum

GLD 408.69

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4:00 PM EST

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (156)	8/31/2005 4:41:38 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) of 218998

Stratfor has a Northeast US bias, and it shows here. Switching from motor gasoline centered production to heating oil centered is not 100%. The Southern part of the US uses relatively little heating oil (haven't y'all heard of electricity ?) The population of the gasoline using areas (The South) has exceeded the heating oil areas (NorthEast) by a large margin. ***** Watching Bloomberg, and the Europeans, Financially oriented Wall Street types, etc. HAVE LITTLE CLUE how long the restoration of energy supply will take. They are thus underestimating how long the high prices and shortages will persist. They also tend to look mostly at oil and oil products, not understanding NG has separate logistics. The Boom Boom Room, and people who look at the physical reality and logistics, know we will go into early summer or 2006 before we get to 90%. There are issues with the crews and the experinced people, many of whom have their homes and offices destroyed. They will not be availibel 100% like Ivan. Some of the speciallized boats and equipment were moved by the storm, and the water ways may need to be dredged before the boats can be moved off the highways... There are many chains of events that must proceed in a serial fashion, and limited capabilities, which means some projects will not be started for weeks if not months. People making "linear" comparisons and projections from the Ivan data points will be surprised when this take 30-50% longer. Royalty trusts with Natural gas exposure should look good for a long time. * Joe Bastardi is talking about a cold winter. Depletion will make it harder to catch up. I think the supply and demand will balance by the US going into a recession. Note that as more and more people expect this, the recession will become a self fullfilling prophecy. *** Now the bad side - I expect oil and gas stocks will spike upward by late 2005 - early 2006, in an exagerated seasonal pattern. This could leave E&P and royalty stocks overpriced to a point where selling or significantly cutting positions will be needed. Would not be surprised to see parabolic price rises.

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