James,
You are right, CSCO and SUNW are actually in very different markets.
But in the internet economy, they both provide essential hardware
irons(borrow your phrase) to enable the internet. While it is true
CSCO is kind of monopoly and SUN has lots of competitors, that is
why I said 50 percent from CSCO. So if internet grows at its present
rate, both companies should benefit in the same way longer term. I
noticed even some fund managers talked about these two companies in
the same time now. I would not worry much about the traditional P/E
range, because back then we didn't hear anything called E_commerse.
It is a new world, and SUN is in a position to benefit this from God
if they can execute which I still have some doubt but getting more
confident.
Regarding the competition, true DELL/CPQ/HP wintel hardware vendors
appear to compete with SUN, but the inherent technolgy competition
is between SUN and Intel/Microsoft. While the disintegration of
hardware and software development between Intel and Microsoft did
provide lots of cheap hardware and software to the public, but it
also has the drawbacks of less stability, usability and scalibility.
Wintel platform doesn't have shell for instance, wintel guys really
don't know how engineers work with their workstations. And Sun's
platform has the traditional advantage and it also comes down in
price now as you can see, a ultra_5 costs less than 3k with 350MHz
ultra_II(that is a powerful machine). In my view, Sun can keep all
its traditional customers(EDA, CAD/CAM customers) firmly in hand.
For those customers just want to upgrade from win 98 to NT, no
doubt, that is wintel market. It is not only cheaper but also has
software applications. So I would think both NT and solaris would
exist in the work place in a long tome.
IMHO.
Eric
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