Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: Mike Taylor who wrote (16132)	8/23/1997 12:11:00 AM
From: Don Earl	of 42771

Hi Mike, You would have a hard time closing the sale of your house in 6 weeks. Take a look at MCI. When British Telecom made the deal to buy MCI last October MCI was trading around 26. It went to 31 then drifted back to 26. A couple good quarters pushed it to a high of around 43. One bad quarter and it dropped back to 30 and British Telecom wants to renegotiate the deal. About a month ago Intel decided to buy Chips & Technologies. CHPS went from 14 to 17 and hasn't budged 1/16 since. I saw one analyist give Novell a fair market value of 5 billion that would come to about $14 per share. I doubt IBM (or anyone) would pay an extra billion to make it $16. That would be in a buy out situation. How about a tax free merger where you get 1 share of IBM for every 13 shares of Novell. I saw on Novells website that they were refusing any more beta testers for Border Manager because they already had 17,000 and didn't need any more. 600 resellers are being trained in Border Manager in preperation for next months release. With an installed base of 55 million users what will that translate to in terms of revenue? If I could get $16 for my stock in six weeks I would giggle all the way to the bank. I don't think it's going to happen but I would love to be wrong. On the other hand if Novell can turn around and grow there will come a time when folks will look back and wish they had bought at $16. All IMO. Regards, Don

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