1) BRCM does not have a pro-active ADSL program. Nicholas believes that ADSL will be just a blip on the way to VDSL (that they are working on). I recently took issue on this with him and he appreciated the point that FTTN-requiring VDSL could wind up being further off, which would allow ADSL to become much more than a blip. Don't know if they'll be prepared for this.
<...1) More places have telephone lines than cable. Most offices don't have cable lines, but all offices have telephone lines...>
Many more homes will have two-way cable in the next year or two. And when a neighborhood's bandwidth decreases significantly, dropping in another node is what the cables have planned. This is what Cox's MO has been. Many offices will use broadband fixed wireless links for voice, data and video. IMO, ADSL will get much more market share than BRCM is anticipating, but for a variety of reasons, much less than what ADSL advocates expect. Also, ADSL as a direct link (vs cable) simply moves the shared bandwidth bottleneck UP the plant - but doesn't eliminate it.
<..3) AOL lost the battle with AT&T over MediaOne, so they will be pushing hard for ADSL technology. The cable industry needs some competition, anyway...>
True, but AOL will be using ALL available methods to reach customers. Stay tuned for details at their analyst conference next week. |
