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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup

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To: golfnut777 who wrote (16162)	4/12/2001 7:05:34 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (3) of 37746

If you don't see the market as oversold then you shouldn't go long. Never do what you don't believe in. But if you go short beware you may be going directly against a turnaround trend rally that's just begun this week and may have legs. And have some perspective, two months ago the mega-bears were predicting an unbelieveable Naz fall to 1950. It was at 2400 or something then. Well we went to 1650 and now we're at 1950 again. So shorts got what they wanted and a lot more. When we hit 1650 I congratulated shorts but suggest now is the time to cover. It was and it still is. The tides always turn and the market is now looking forward a bit. Maybe the guidance isn't crystal but if you've been around long you know tech cycles can reverse very-very quickly. If you believe in a world-wide depression buy gold and short all you like. I wouldn't touch either with a ten-foot pole unless we go up 20% minimum first. Almost every company has already warned and companies have been doubly punished. All the bad news on Lu for instance was out by December but it kept getting pounded into dust from 21 down to 5.50. That was a ridiculous over-reaction though some of it was warranted. Bottomline though, why buy now? Because we're going to continue going up. (knock on wood) And longterm the market always trends up. Shorting should only be used at over-bought toppy markets with riduculous valuations. Be patient. Two years from now we might be back there again. If you disagree then go ahead and keep shorting, but I wouldn't want to be in your shoes. PS - I'm not 100% bullish, I just know when we're long overdue for a positive correction. Also, it's in Wall Street's interest to have a long rally. Financials could topple unless they stress the long, soothe the fears and panic and get things going again. Optimism itself will bring recovery. Add in rate cuts and inventories gone and we're back.

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